New Zealand media are branding this final as "in the bag" or the French "don't stand a chance". I even read that the bookies have given them 6-1 odds. A word of warning is that well in sport nothing is a given.
When the Rugby World Cup draw took place on the 1st December 2008 I remember saying if France is in our pool we can only get them in our pool and in the Rugby World Cup Final. Never, to be honest, did I believe they would make the final. Especially after having lost two matches already in the tournament. Some say they don't deserve to be in the final having played one good match against England and not playing much against the Welsh and still winning so there hasn't been anything to talk about, besides their problems in the camp. Much like in 1987 this World Cup's last four was also France, Australia, Wales and New Zealand only France played Australia in the semi final and All Blacks (ABs) played Wales. The ABs also had their big "injury" and then it was before the tournament started losing their captain Andy Dalton also during a practice like Dan Carter, and just like in 1987 this AB team just got on with it and reached the Final.
Odds are not just stacked against the French but history is too. In 1987 the French lost to David Kirk's ABs in New Zealand, and at Eden Park none-the-less, where New Zealand haven't lost since 1994 a certain Frenchman named Jean-Luc Sadourny scored a last minute try to silence a 40 000 strong crowd in a year when Aaron Cruden was all but 5 years old.
Every team to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy has gone through the tournament unbeaten and the ABs remain the only unbeaten team left this year but I suspect the French like the underdog tag and the ABs should be weary of that. This French team performances have been so poor, when they are expected to win comfortably they lose (Tonga) and when they expected to lose (against Eng and Wales) they win. No team has made the World Cup Final after having lost two pool matches, so can we say they are the worst performing team to reach the Final?
ABs dominate the head-to-head record between these two sides but so frequent are the shock defeats that no team should be more nervous about meeting France in the Rugby World Cup Final. Interestingly enough, the Les Bleus have defeated the ABs the last two times they have met in the knock-out stages of the Rugby World Cup.There have been two matches played between the ABs and France in the month of October both were at the Rugby World Cup, in 1999 and 2007, and both were won by France even though the ABs lead at half time (17-10 in 99 and 13-3 in 07). to note though in all six of the previous World Cup Finals the side winning at half-time has gone on to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.
Statistics show that the two teams are not separated by much (besides the tries & points scored) the ABs have had the most successful line out unit at this World Cup, winning 92% of their own throws so far, France have had the third best (89%), also they boast the second most successful scrummaging unit at the RWC, having won an impressive 98% of ball on their own feed (France 95%). Dimitri Yachvili (39 WC points) and Piri Weepu (41 WC points) have both successfully kicked 15 attempts at goal so far, however Weepu narrowly holds the edge for success rate, 75% v 71%. France have a 66.6% and ABs 64% conversion rate for tries scored. Ma’a Nonu (15) and Richard Kahui (10) have made more clean breaks than any other players at this RWC. Lionel Nallet and Ali Williams have both claimed four line out steals at this tournament, only the USA’s John Van Der Giessen (5) has stolen more.
This might seem biased but the All Blacks will go on and win the Webb Ellis Trophy for the second time in their history in their home country New Zealand and I won't be surprised if its by 20 points.
Yes New Zealand to win by a points difference of 20.
Jade Christopher Bentley Adams (JCBA)
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