You can look at team sheets as much as you like and you can run your eye over the pre-season friendly results as closely as it is possible to do so in your quest to be learned in your prediction for the competition, but the reality is that when new teams are playing you never really know what they are capable of until they actually play.
There has been a massive change of personnel at some franchises, not least of them the Bulls and the Hurricanes, two teams that will be in action on South African soil this weekend. The Bulls/Sharks game at Loftus on Friday night is the headline act locally, with the Sharks fielding a team mostly of players who are known to us and who have shown good pre-season form, but with the corollary that the Sharks have only played weak opposition in the build-up.
So for them this opening round is an unknown too -- they have a new midfield combination in the form of Tim Whitehead and JP Pietersen who have been impressive so far but who have yet to come up against a Super Rugby standard team in order to prove that the potential they have shown is a fact and not a mirage.
The Bulls have turned over a lot of players but if you look at their team on paper there is a lot to enthuse over in terms of what they could be capable of. But several of those players are either completely or relatively untested at this level. Much is being expected of Johann Sadie, for instance, and there is no denying his talent, but he only played a smattering of games for the Stormers last year so there isn’t really that much to go on when it comes to proven ability at this stage of his career.
What will be interesting about the Bulls this year will be to see how far they digress from their proven template of the glory years. So this is one Friday night where all rugby fans -- at least those who can’t get to Loftus -- stay at home to watch the game on television.
And if you can somehow get away from work on Friday morning there is plenty to look forward to then too -- a top of the New Zealand conference derby between the Blues and Crusaders is a great way to kick off the Super Rugby year, while Jake White’s Brumbies are another of those unknown quantities. They clash with a Force team that is only slightly less unknown. So fasten your seatbelts and here goes.
WEEKEND FIXTURES (All times CAT, SA, GMT+2)
24 FEBRUARY
BLUES v CRUSADERS (Auckland, Friday 8:35am)
The Crusaders are my tip to win the New Zealand conference, but they often start the tournament slowly, and with Richie McCaw and Dan Carter set to be sidelined for several weeks still, they could be vulnerable away from home against a Blues team that has made considerable off-season gains. Not that all those gains are in the team as yet, with Ma’a Nonu still making his way back from Japan and the other former Hurricanes All Black Piri Weepu only lending his versatility from the bench after a late start to the season. It appears Weepu might be the first choice Blues flyhalf in the long run, but for this game Michael Hobbs has been rewarded for his early season form. The Crusaders have lost Chris Jack and Sonny Bill Williams, but Tom Donnelly is a good replacement for Jack at lock while the return of Robbie Freuan after missing some pre-season games gives the Crusaders a staunch look at the back. This is a really appetising opener to the new Super Rugby season.
Prediction: Blues to win
BRUMBIES v FORCE (Canberra, Friday 10:40am)
There will be a lot of interest in South Africa in the first game played by the Brumbies as it is effectively Jake White’s first competition match of any kind as a head coach since his Springbok team won the World Cup in 2007. When you look at the Brumbies team you realise White is starting from scratch, with several stalwarts now no longer part of the franchise, and he has had to give debut Super Rugby appearances to six different players, two of them in the starting team. The Force though have also lost a few marquee players, James O’Connor being the most notable departure, and they might just be vulnerable to a fired up Brumbies side determined to impress their new coach.
Prediction: Force to win
VODACOM BULLS v SHARKS (Pretoria, Friday 7:10pm)
So into the unknown the Bulls go, and they weren’t helped by the loss through a freak accident away from the field of experienced flanker Dewaldt Potgieter. The Sharks are a bit more of a known quantity than the hosts, but the Bulls do still have some staunchness in the front five that could trouble the Sharks on a night when both teams will be approaching the game like it’s a final. The Sharks have been slow starters in recent seasons but I am taking them to get it right in this one and in so doing follow up their win at Loftus in the final league game of 2011.
Prediction: Sharks to win
25 FEBRUARY
CHIEFS v HIGHLANDERS (Hamilton, Saturday 8:35am)
We haven’t seen the Highlanders team yet but they were one of the surprise packages for most of 2011 and will be looking to continue to build. The Chiefs though have called up several of the exciting newcomers to the franchise, the pick being Sonny Bill Williams, and if you look at what they pack on paper it seems a good bet that they will start with a home win.
Prediction: Chiefs to win
WARATAHS v REDS (Sydney, Saturday 10:40am)
The Reds are going to be without flyhalf Quade Cooper for a while and that is going to be a problem for them as so much revolves around him and his halfback partner Will Genia. Mike Harris will play this one in Cooper’s place. Time will tell what effect Cooper’s loss will have on the Reds, but I suspect it might be quite a big one initially. The Waratahs are without Berrick Barnes and some key forwards but this is an Australian derby and anything can happen in these matches, and usually does. So although I think the Reds will win the conference, I am going with home ground advantage first up.
Prediction: Waratahs to win
DHL STORMERS v HURRICANES (Cape Town, Saturday 5:05pm)
There has been some concern in the Cape over the Stormers’ chances due to the off-field upheaval which eventually saw Rassie Erasmus resign as director of rugby, and the fact that position hasn’t been filled and head coach Allister Coetzee is going to effectively fill both roles is reason for concern given that some of the other franchises are poised to strike at some of their promising juniors in the coming months. Hopefully contractual issues -- the bulk of the Stormers playing squad comes off contract in October -- won’t prove too much of a distraction for the coach for at full strength, like the Stormers will be for the opener against the Hurricanes, they look a pretty decent outfit. The one area where a change has been forced is outside centre, and it is going to be interesting to see how Bryan Habana measures up in his old position in his clash with All Black legend Conrad Smith.
Prediction: Stormers to win
MTN LIONS v TOYOTA CHEETAHS (Johannesburg, Saturday 7:10pm)
The concern about the Lions should be directed at their depth, or the question marks over that depth, rather than what they can pack into their first choice team. They were good in the Currie Cup last year, and while they weren’t impressive in a pre-season friendly against the Stormers in Cape Town in January, they do have Elton Jantjes back at pivot and it is around him that so much revolves. The last time they played a competition game at their home ground it was in the Currie Cup and even though the Cheetahs have improved in some areas and are talking a lot bigger this year than in the past, the Lions should be expected to win.
Prediction Lions to win
So I never take credit if its not my own work, seeing as the new Super Rugby Season creeped up on me, I decided to choose this article and it more than deserves to be on my blog, my thanks to supersport. Unfortunatelty I do not have an reporters name.
Jade Christopher Bentley Adams (JCBA)
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